The Atlanta Falcons might be 5-6 SU, but they’re still sitting on top of the NFC South heading into their Week 13 matchup with the New York Jets who will have Tim Boyle under center as a 2-point home dog on the NFL odds board.
Coming off a zero-target game and seemingly being phased out of an offense that is abandoning the pass, is it time to fade Jonnu Smith and the secondary pass-catchers for the Falcons?
I break down the Week 13 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks and predictions for Falcons vs. Jets on December 3.
Falcons vs Jets odds
Falcons vs Jets predictions
The Atlanta Falcons put OC Dave Ragone up in the booth to “help” Desmond Ridder and despite the 24-15 win over the Saints, it was an ugly performance from the quarterback who had two picks and completed just 13 of 21 passes.
The Falcons have the most run-heavy offense over the last three weeks at 57% and with so much on the line, it will be another low-volume passing game for the Birds who have three running backs right now to hand off to.
That’s bad news for No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith but great news for his Under 20.5 yards bet.
Smith had 34 receptions over an eight-game stretch starting in Week 2, but he has been non-existent in the last two games where he has just one catch on three targets across 24 routes. Last week alone, he ran just nine routes and wasn’t even targeted.
With Ridder struggling and this team needing wins, it will be a lot of running and not a lot of Smith who also faces a Jets’ defense that defends the position well, ranking in the Top 10 in yards allowed to TEs.
There has been a big move in his yards as it was 28.5 yards last week, but this is a guy who will be lucky to see two targets Sunday, let alone two receptions and 20-plus yards. I’m playing this Under to 16.5 yards.
My best bet: Jonnu Smith Under 18.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Falcons vs Jets same-game parlay
Jonnu Smith Under 18.5 receiving yardsBijan Robinson Over 81.5 rush + rec yardsTyler Allgeier Over 32.5 rushing yards
+575 at bet365
It’s going to be another heavy running game for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier had 10 carries last week and totaled 64 rushing yards while Bijan Robinson had 91 yards alone on the ground on 16 carries.
The rookie running back also had three of the 13 completions. He will be heavily involved and Smith and the pass-catchers likely won’t considering Ridder’s struggles and where the Falcons sit in the division.
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